Background and Aims

The Mental Health Crisis Decision Support Tool was introduced into the Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust to predict the likelihood of mental health crisis.

There is a large increase in demand for urgent care in the NHS, with mental health crises having a significant impact. Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust have a number of crisis services that manage mental health crisis however there was no mechanism that predicts a crisis before a patient’s condition escalates.


The Decision Support Tool uses six years of clinical, anonymised data to identify patient risk of mental health crisis. It incorporates a predictive algorithm and a digital interface solution to reduce both the incidence and intensity of mental health crisis, while improving the system’s response to it. The algorithm makes a prediction at a weekly basis (although in theory could be generated daily if deemed clinically valuable) of whether a patient will experience a crisis event during the following four weeks. During the pilot testing of the tool, clinicians were provided with updated predictions on a bi-weekly basis which was in line with their available time and capacity to engage in the research. As a result, clinicians can provide targeted, early intervention to those at high risk.

Additional Information

You can find out more about the Crisis Decision Support Tool and its outcomes by accessing the Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Trust page.

You can find out more about the predictive analysis algorithm and its outcomes by accessing The Health Foundation page.

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Content last updated: 05/03/2021

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